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    Safe,and,Sound:safe and sound意思

    分类:中考祝福语 时间:2019-05-25 本文已影响

      China is up to its neck in a bumper harvest once again. According to figures from the Ministry of Agriculture(MOA), China’s summer grain output reached 129.95 billion kg this year, up 35.5 billion kg year on year. This is the ninth consecutive year that China has reaped such a bountiful harvest.
      A bumper harvest this fall seems all but assured, and China’s grain output in the whole year will continue growing.
      China has always emphasized the need for grain security. During the process of urbanization and industrialization, the Central Government, with the aim of ensuring grain supplies, has stipulated that China must ensure the minimum cultivated land area of 120 million hectares and adopted increasingly strict approval of land use for industrial and commercial purposes. In the meantime, benefiting from progresses in agricultural science and technology, grain output per hectare has kept increasing.
      However, as China’s grain consumption increases, the self-sufficient rate is decreasing. The target of grain self-sufficient rate set by the MOA is 95 percent. In 2008, the rate already reached 95 percent and in 2010 it fell to 90.6 percent. According to figures released by the General Administration of Customs(GAC) on July 23, in the first half of this year, China imported 40.85 million tons of grain, a year-on-year increase of 41.2 percent, indicating that China’s self-sufficient rate of grain is further decreasing this year.
      Even amid this ample harvest, China still needs to take preventive measures to cope with the influence from the international market and ensure long-term grain security.
       U.S. takes a hit
      In the first half of 2012, two thirds of the U.S. crop planting areas were destroyed by the most serious drought in the past 50 years. Affected by the drought, futures prices of corn, soybean and wheat have increased by 30-50 percent since June. The hikes are expected to continue.
      This has affected China’s grain imports on the other side of the Pacific. Respectively, 4 percent of China’s corn supply and 82 percent of soybean supply are satisfied by imports, and the United States is the biggest source of corn and soybean imports for China.
      “Soaring grain prices and short supplies in the international market will influence the domestic grain market,” said Li Guoxiang, Deputy Director of the Rural Development Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS).
      Growth of rigid demand on feed crops and vegetable oil is the biggest reason for China’s imports of corn and soybean. GAC figures showed that among the grain imports in the first half, corn imports stood at 2.41 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6,535.2 percent; soybean imports amounted to 29.5 million tons, up by 22.5 percent over a year ago.
      According to MOA figures, China’s corn supply has become increasingly dependent on imports. In 2010, China changed from a corn exporter to a net importer. With growth of breeding of livestock and aquatic products, China’s corn demand is growing at an annual speed of 2 million tons.
      At present, 65 percent of China’s soybean demand is satisfied by imports.
      However, supply of basic grain consumption is safe in China. According to figures from the Center for Chinese Agricultural Policy of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(CAS), in the past 10 years, all China’s supplies of rice and wheat, major crops to feed the Chinese, have been satisfied with domestic output. This is mainly because of the changes in China’s consumption structure. As resident income grows and urbanization progresses, the proportion of meat, aquatic product, vegetable and fruit consumption is increasing, while the proportion of rice and wheat consumption is decreasing. In 1990 the per-capita rice consumption of Chinese citizens was 88 kg, but in 2000, the figure declined to 75 kg and further down to 60 kg in 2009. The percapita wheat consumption was 73 kg in 1990, but dropped to 65 kg in 2000 and 50 kg in 2009. Such tendency will still go on.
       Facing challenges
       Although summer grain production has increased for nine consecutive years, the resources supporting grain production are declining, making it more difficult for future grain production to increase.
      Among the resources, reduction of cultivated land may become the biggest danger. According to the Rural Development Institute of the CASS, the bottom line of 120 hectares of cultivated land is likely to be broken because of the increase of land for industrial purposes and deterioration of the environment.
      At present, the per-capita cultivated land in China is 0.11 hectare, 47 percent of the world’s average. In one fourth of China’s counties, the per-capita cultivated land is lower than the security line of 0.05 hectare set by the UN Food and Agriculture Organization.
      Moreover, as a result of environment pollution and improper cultivation by farmers, the quality of some cultivated land is deteriorating, and the sustainable production capacity of land is affected. In some places, grain production is restricted by serious water shortages.
      “China’s population growth is expected to remain high for the next few years. Since China has to feed a growing population and improve the people’s living standards with a limited amount of cultivated land, the prospect of grain security is not optimistic,” said a document of the CASS Rural Development Institute.
      In China, growth of grain production cost is higher than that of output value, reducing the yield rate and affecting the future stability of grain production.
      According to figures from the Center for Chinese Agricultural Policy, the yield rate of paddy, wheat and corn production in China dropped from 30.6 percent in 1998 to 24.3 percent in 2009, and that of soybean production from 37 percent to 22.1 percent. Among various kinds of farm produce, the yield rate of grain production is much lower than those of cash crops, such as oil- and sugar-bearing crops, cotton and vegetables. Although the government has granted subsidies to grain planting and set minimum purchasing prices for grain crops, the subsidy is still lower than the growth of production costs.
      Further, as urbanization accelerates, more young people are apt to leave rural areas and abandon their would-be lives on the family farm. This outflow of agricultural labor is also intensifying the decline in agriculture production.
       Tapping potential
       The School of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development of Renmin University of China recently released a report on the tendency for China’s cultivated land to be transferred for non-agriculture purposes, and estimated the future amount of cultivated land and potentials of grain output.
      “Agricultural restructuring, urbanization and industrialization will be the main reasons for the decline of cultivated land in the future. To ensure grain production, China must maintain high-quality cultivated land and improve the productivity on the land of non-agricultural purposes through economic incentives and administrative measures,” said the report.
      The report says China must improve its water-saving techniques in order to stabilize and increase future grain production.
      Water plays a significant role in grain production—and adequate water resources are necessary to ensure grain security. However, distribution of China’s water resources is uneven in different regions, varying season to season.
      In the United States and Israel, a watersaving culture and best practices are already widely embraced. In the United States, 54 percent of irrigated lands utilize spray irrigation and micro-irrigation technologies. In Israel, those figures are close to 100 percent.
      While rapid progress has been made in water-saving irrigation in China, spray irrigation and micro-irrigation areas still account for a small proportion of the total irrigated area, at less than 10 percent. This indicates that, on the one hand, China’s irrigation technologies are still outdated, but on the other, there is great potential in saving water for agricultural production. To improve the efficiency of irrigation will help alleviate water shortage in agricultural production.
      Huang Jikun, Director of the Agricultural Policy Research Center of the CAS Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, said China should improve the international grain trade environment and governance mechanism.
      First, China should actively participate in the construction of global and regional food security governance mechanisms, such as to participate in establishing global and regional grain reserve systems, grain security governance systems and action plans prohibiting grain embargoes.
      Second, China should actively boost international technology transfers. It can urge developed countries to transfer agricultural technologies to developing countries and improve grain production capability of China and other developing countries. China may also sign, on the basis of equality and mutual benefit, middle- and long-term grain trade agreements with countries like the United States and Brazil, who are major exporters of soybean and corn to China.
      Huang thought China should also actively promote grain production in Africa, which will be conducive to alleviating short supplies in the international grain market and relieving China’s pressure of grain imports. “China should strengthen its aid of technology and infrastructure construction to African countries. To increase grain production in African countries can help enhance grain security in Africa and ensure China’s grain security,” Huang said.

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